Angel One Shows Gradual Recovery Amid Regulatory Challenges

Angel One's H1FY26 results signal a measured rebound from regulatory headwinds that impacted H2-FY25, though order volumes remain sharply lower year-over-year. The brokerage's recovery hinges on three pillars: a 7% sequential uptick in average daily orders, a 44% expansion in its margin trading facility (MTF) book since March 2025, and accelerating non-broking revenue streams—with distribution income jumping 30% quarterly and wealth management AUM reaching ₹6,100 crore.

Valuation maintains a 20x multiple on FY27E EPS of ₹141, anchoring the unchanged ₹2,820 target price. Projections anticipate daily orders climbing from 5.6 million to 7.7 million by FY27, with MTF books swelling to ₹6,500 crore and EBDAT margins hitting guided 40% levels. Price revisions are expected to lift blended net broking rates by ~₹0.5.

The Add rating reflects Optimism around order flow normalization and non-broking business diversification. Risks loom from potential order slippage, MTF underperformance, cost overruns, or fresh regulatory interventions—particularly ASBA-related impacts on ancillary income streams.